So far, the rains are still missing and the specter of a bad agricultural season, with all its inconveniences, is looming ever larger.
Admittedly, the scenario of a deceleration of economic growth to 2.9% by the end of the current year is still in place. However, it could be thwarted by the significant delay in rainfall, particularly between December, January and the first 10 days of February. Indeed, if this situation persists at the end of March, it will have a major impact on the cereal harvest, initially expected to be 72 million quintals, and will further deteriorate the projected negative contribution of agricultural value added to GDP
Thus, agricultural activities would show a strong downward trend in the first quarter of 2022, after having been particularly dynamic in 2021. The performance of the crop sectors would be affected by below normal autumn rainfall.
However, animal production is expected to continue its positive trend, but at a more moderate pace, thanks in particular to the development of poultry activities. In this context, even the HCP forecasts should be reconsidered. Indeed, according to Lahlimi’s team, agricultural value added would already be down by 4.5% in the first quarter of 2022, assuming a cereal harvest below the five-year average by about 9%.
Growth is expected to be 2.8% in the first quarter of 2022. It will be driven by three main factors. First, by a 3.4% increase in value added excluding agriculture. In the tertiary sector, activity is expected to continue to improve in market services, particularly trade and transport. Overall, the tertiary sector is expected to contribute 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth. Similarly, in the secondary sector, industrial and construction activities are expected to continue the improvement that began in the second quarter of 2021.
The second sector that would carry this growth is national domestic
demand. According to the HCP, domestic demand is expected to continue to grow in early 2022, although at a slightly slower pace, particularly in terms of household spending, which has been affected by rising inflation. Public spending, for its part, will continue its upward trend, bringing the increase in public consumption to 4.5% in annual variation.
Gross investment is expected to grow at a rate of 7.8%, driven by the positive trend in investment in industrial equipment and construction. Finally, as a third dynamic factor, the HCP points to world demand for Morocco, which is expected to increase by 2.4% in annual variation in the first quarter of 2022. World trade in goods is expected to continue to improve, driven by trade between advanced and emerging economies, but with a slight slowdown in momentum after the upward mechanical adjustment of 2021.
At the same time, it should be noted that the stock market started the year on a high note with increases of +3.93% for the MASI and +4.26% for the MSI 20, taking advantage of the still favorable anticipation of investors as to the direction of the 2021 achievements of the listed companies, as well as the still favorable arbitrage for the share, leading local institutional investors to strengthen their positions on it. However, it should be remembered that if the lack of rainfall persists, all these economic growth estimates could be revised downwards in the coming months to bring them closer to the worst-case scenario, which is also conditioned by the evolution of the health situation, the extent of the travel and activity restriction measures put in place and any economic support policies.
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